Aliens and Math

I am a debater. A born and bred debater--in case you couldn't tell by the way I argue something in all of my posts. But this year for region all off he debate spots were filled up, so I got (or had, whichever way you look at it) to go in Oratory. At first I was kind of reluctant--what could I talk about for 10 minutes that I was passionate? Then, of course, it came to me. Science!! And my favorite kind, of course. Astronomy. So, astronomy it is. But what about astronomy? There's so many things I could talk about. Black holes, stars, nebulas, Jupiter, destroying black holes (yes you can do that), there's SO MUCH AMAZINGNESS. It took me something a little closer to home to help me decide my topic. So here's roughly what I came up with.
Aliens and math.
So one thing that has to do with aliens (and math) a lot is the Drake Equation. If you'd like to look it up on Wikipedia, there is a lot of great information there about it. But I will try to sum it up right here.
The Drake Equation is:
N = R* times fp times ne times fl times fi times fc times L. 
Okay: that's a lot of letters and not very numbers for a math equation, which it in fact is. This equation was created in 1961 by Dr. Frank Drake. It is, or N is equal to the likeliness that we will find intelligent, communicating life in the Milky Way Galaxy. So I'll go through and explain all of the variables and kind of explain how on Earth we could write an equation for something as amazing as that. 
R* is the number of stars that are created in the milky way galaxy per year. It's roughly 7. SEVEN. That's an enormous number, when you think of the billions of years that it takes to create stars!!! It takes so long I would have been surprised if roughly one star was created per year!! A year is a very short time and that means that billions of stars are getting close to be created right now!! Now, of course, everything is relative. Seven is a very big number when thinking about the time it takes to create stars, but with most things in the universe, seven is not very large. 95 million miles (1 AU) is not a very large number when comparing it to the hundreds of thousands of light years across the galaxy, but it's much bigger than seven. So just remember, it's all in perspective. 
fp is the fraction of these stars that are going to have planets. (It's pronounced F sub P, just in case you want to go and talk to all your friends about this) So this number is going to be close to one--which means that it is close to 100% just in case you were confused--because it seems to be more of the rule rather than the exception to have planets. Which honestly makes sense, when a star is born there's a lot of excess dust around it and it doesn't take a lot to get that to form into planets. So the number for N so far is still around seven. Which, in case you don't know, is more than 100%. So our search for aliens is going pretty well so far. 
Ne is where we start to go down. Ne is the number of these planets that are going to be able to support life. One of the main things that this means is to be in the "Goldilocks Zone", or if you prefer to be more scientific, the "Habitable Zone". This is the distance from a star where a planet can have solid, liquid, and gas water. 

Finding the Goldilocks Zone for Different Sized Stars

"Habitable zone - HZ" by Habitable_zone-en.svg: Chewiederivative work: Ignacio javier igjav (talk) - Habitable_zone-en.svg. Licensed under CC BY-SA 3.0 via Wikimedia Commons - http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Habitable_zone_-_HZ.png#/media/File:Habitable_zone_-_HZ.png

That's my citing it. I don't know if it's correct, but I hope so. 

Anyway, this is a good picture that describes the Goldilocks Zones of planets. Because it's not as if 1 AU (our distance from the sun) from the sun is always going to be exactly right. Different stars have different heats, and different sizes, and everything is all relative to everything, as I said earlier. So this picture is a good one for saying how far away it is. 

Okay, now the Goldilocks Zone is a big part of seeing if the planet is suitable for life, but there is so much more than that. There's a lot of things that Earth has that we just never really think is necessary because it's just...there. The moon, for example. The moon's gravity has stabilized the planet's rotation a lot. We would still be spinning quite wildly if not for the moon. Also, gases like Nitrogen, Hydrogen, Carbon, and of course Oxygen. There must be a ground. It can't be a gas planet, like Jupiter or Neptune. There are so many variables and factors that this will be an infinitesimal number. Yeah. So, there goes our 700%. 

fl is the fraction of these planets that are going to go on to actually develop any life at all. This number, like the rest of them I'll admit, is very controversial. So I'm just going to give you my opinion, mostly because that's the one I understand the best. So I believe this fraction is going to, again, be pretty close to one. Here's why:

4.5 billion years ago our planet stabilized. The molten rock on the top started to cool and harden and our planet started to collect water and hold an atmosphere. It took 700 million years for life to start!! Only .7 billion years!! That's practically nothing on the grand 13.8 billion years the universe has been around. And if it was that short on our planet, it leads me to believe that it is not as unlikely to happen. Maybe the right particles float together all the time and life is constantly being created. So I personally believe that there is undoubtedly other life out there just waiting for us to find it or them to find us. 

fi is the fraction of planets that develop life that go on to develop intelligent life. I understand both sides to this argument, so I will explain both of them briefly. 

Some point out that out of all the hundreds of species on the planet Earth, only one of them has gone on to develop intelligence. No dogs have created computers, no bears have built houses, no horses have harnessed the power of fire, relative to most animals, we are quite genius. No offense to animal lovers--I love animals too, I just know that we are quite a bit smarter than trees. 

Other people, of which I am one, say that all animals are slowly developing through natural selection the intelligence that we have gained over time. Though monkeys are not at our level of comprehension, they are slowly gaining genius through trial, error, and natural selection. So, whichever side of this argument you are on determines what number you choose to use for this variable. 

fc is the fraction of planets that develop intelligent life that is willing and able to communicate across interstellar space. For instance, not all planets may want to communicate. Maybe they are very peaceful and don't want the wars that other intelligent life may cause. (Let's admit it; we fight a lot as homo sapiens.) This number, however, is nearly impossible to even comprehend. Look up tonight before you go to bed. you can see billions of stars. And you can only see a tiny, tiny fraction of the stars that are out there shedding light on you. Light is bent by other stars, black holes, blocked by asteroids, space is an obstacle course for light. And then there's the fact that one's eyes can only see so well. And then there's the entire other half of the Earth. I mean, come on. There are so many stars out there. The numbers are inconceivable to the human brain. (And come on, we all thought of Princess Bride when we saw that word.) For this reason, looking for other, communicating life is like looking for a needle. In a haystack. In a tower of hay. On a planet of hay. I mean, really. This number is going to be SO FREAKIN SMALL. Yeah. 

L. The simplest variable, mostly because I don't have to make a big deal about making it a subscript. Those are hard to type, believe it or not. So, L. it's pretty simple to explain as well, I believe. L is the length of time that this intelligent, communicating life is going to be living and sending out signals. I personally (I have a lot of opinions) agree with the scientists that say it's likely infinity. Mainly because when a life form gets intelligent enough, it can overcome all threats to its survival and live indefinitely. Cool. We are obviously not there yet. 

So this, to sum it up in two words, is the Drake Equation. It's the best math equation (besides E=mc squared) that I've found so far. I love it when I feel like I can actually use the algebra I've learned in science. Because they're both so amazing, they should be used together more than people often assume they are. And, now you know something that is completely and one hundred percent amazing. The Drake Equation is quite fascinating and I would highly suggest looking it up and researching it! (Unless of course I explained it so well you are an expert on it and are going to go teach about it at Harvard) So now you know that there actually is a number for the percent likeliness that we will find aliens! AWESOME.